- BMO strategist Brian Belski forecasts a 12% rise in the S&P 500 in 2024 despite prevailing recession fears.
- Macroeconomic factors driving this forecast include low inflation and interest rates, and a strong job market.
- Belski also predicts a shift in gains distribution in the market and expects a mild recession, the avoidance of which could lead to higher index hikes.
BMO's seasoned strategist, Brian Belski, has been capturing investors' attention recently, with an unconventional forecast for the S&P 500 that veers decidedly from the prevalent market sentiment. Against a backdrop of rumbling recession fears, Belski foresees a solid 12% rise in the S&P 500 for 2024, dispelling the impending gloom with a bullish anticipation. This forecast notably strays from the technology-centric bull market rhythm and rather places the spotlight on a diversified portfolio in various industries and firms of different sizes.
In unwrapping the package of Belski's prediction, inflation and interest rates emerge as significant factors. They constitute fundamental market dynamics with their interlocked relationship aptly elucidated by the Fisher effect. Theory, crafted by Irving Fisher, outlines their interaction with nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation. Keeping this theorem in mind, his prediction for the S&P 500 prospects might pose a significant impact.
The year 2022 and 2023 bore the brunt of inflation turbulence that left investors on edge. However, Belski confidently predicts a soothing downturn in inflation rates, reminiscent of the startling drop from 13.55% to 3.22% between 1982-1983, which ushered an era of market stability. Should his prophecy hold, inflation fears may give way to a period of modest global economic boost.
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